Two jet fighter flying near Ramming bridge above the Laymyo river and fired missiles on May 7, 2020 |
Overview (Arakan News )
It is not in Afghanistan nor Syria; it is in Arakan in
western Myanmar where two Russia made supersonic jet fighters flew over just
above the heads of local fishermen and fired the missiles into the mountains
and near the highway. It was lucky the missiles did not hit the fishing
cannoe.
Military aggression has been easing in middle east and
Afghanistan after Covid-19 pandemic threating every region and every one. But
government and army spokespersons in Naypaytaw are very proud of briefing the
press and accusing Arakan Army was shooting WHO and WFP vehicles.
It is how it goes on to behavior warmongers and aggressive
people. Very unfortunate, Burma, now Myanmar, was not enforced to sign
armistice treaty with disarmament provision with American led alliance before
the independence. This nation should be considered the most aggressive as Asia
Axis after North Korea. In the future, civilized and peace loving nations
should keep in mind Myanmar needs to sign a disarmament treaty.
At the present time, a Sittway based military analyst who
remains confidential for his personal security, foresees Myanmar army’s dry
season offensive operation supported by airstrikes, navy, and artillery
firepower are gradually easing in Rakhine State. His own analysis is somehow
interesting.
Glancing on
Operation Theatre
According to the analyst, Tatmadaw is reducing its ground
troops from attacking on AA positions and bases in thick jungles and high
mountains in the eve of stormy monsoon weather but moving back the forces to
the bases while focusing in villages and towns to search, arrest, and
interrogate suspects of AA supporters.
“The army is prioritizing to reposition its troops of 15,000
to defense the bases and newly set up artillery bases in the frontlines in
northern Rakhine and southern Chin states,” He said.
Beginning of winter and through out the summer season from
November to April, Myanmar army has aggressively launching military operations
against AA, an attempt to defeat and contain AA fighters advancing to south,
penetrating in villages and towns, and cut off supply lines and connection with
rural populations.
“The war Myanmar army fighting in this summer is first to
defeating AA by air and navy supports in three months period, but it later
changes to secure logistic support as well as clearing military supply roads,
and defending hardware and artillery installations in new bases,” the analysist
said.
Why is that?
By looking back the heavy military presence and carrying out
aggressive operations by moving place to place and timelines in northern
theatre in Paletwa, Minbya, Kyauktaw, and Ponnaygun townships will be tangible
wider scenario and more understanding on Naypaytaw strategy.
Firstly, the army attacked AA bases in Paletwas township in
Chin State through December to May. Jet fighters and helicopters are
consistently bombing and firing missiles to the mountains and jungles--sometime
to the villages--where possible AA bases are located while ground forces
attacking.
Arakan Army cleverly repositioned and attacked the very
strategic location on water transportation gateway of Miwa military base for
over 45 days. Myanmar army paid heavy prices to defend the base. At one point,
entire battalion and its commander were killed and captured by the AA fighters
after parachuting.
Secondly, the army at the same time attacked AA bases and
positions in the deep and far north of Kaladan River in Kyauktaw township. The
army faced heavy causalities near Tin Ma, Mu Than Pyin, and Mar Lar villages.
Again, jet fighters and helicopters dropped bombs in the jungles and mountains.
Some bombs fall into Mu Than Pyin. Later on, the army set fire Tin Ma, Mar Lar,
Mu Than Pyin, and Saba Htar villages. Thousands of villagers had to take
shelters in Kyauktaw.
Thirdly, in the beginning of January while attacking in
Kyauktaw and Paletwa, the army sent 4,000 reinforcement troops to Minbya
township to secure Ramaung Bridge and to attack AA positions in wide range of
15 villages. Since then, the army has been consistently attacking AA positions.
Jet fighters, helicopters, and navy are backing up the ground forces.
While AA were busy defending its positions near Ramaung
bridge, it turned back and assaulted the military training school in Minbya
township in March. That shock up the military planer in Naypaytaw.
Ten of thousands of villagers had to run away from the
villages and set up temporary IDP camps.
The latest the army attack was on May 7, and two jet
fighters fired missiles to the mountain near Ngya Sa Yin village.
“The ground troops in Minbya are useless. The air strikes
are only deterring AA not to wipeout entire battalions. Most of the troops
bringing from the mainland are incapable and inexperience as well as lack of
skill commanders. Most skillful commanders are assigned in state and national
parliaments,” the analyst said.
The final push is Ponnaygun township. Three thousand
soldiers are mobilized in populated village tracks such as Nat Taung, Let Wea
Sar Taik, Kyauk Seik, Di Par Yon, and Ken U. These village tracks contain with
20 villages and reply on waterway transportation and some narrow roads.
Most of the reinforcement troops were landed by navy in
Kyauk Seik in first week of March. Then they were transported to Let Wea Sar
Taik by roads and small boats. Then AA cut the road and attacked by
landmines.
Most troops were encircled by AA fighters in the jungles and
hills near Khit Ka Toe village. Then jet fighters and helicopters bombed the
hills to clear the way out when artilleries were fined from Sittway and
Ponnaygun. The fight lasted 45 days.
In April second week and after the shells killed 8 civiliand
and wounded 14 villagers in Kyauk Seik, AA attacked the navy landing port near
the village and killed several soldiers.
“This is the end of full scale operation in Ponnaygun
township and attacking on AA bases, but the army is changing its operation to
arrest villagers from every village and interrogate. That is the way they army
thought they could find AA members and supporters in the village as intelligent
gathering operation,” the analyst said.
AA stronghold township like Rathedaung, Maybone, and
Buthedaung are left out of full scale military operations but sporadic fights
and jet fighters bombing sometimes.
The analysis said, “It shows the weakness of the army
leaderships and insufficient troops to assemble wide range of Arakan theatre.
If AA extends the fights in the south, Naypaytaw will be in big trouble.”