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| Two jet fighter flying near Ramming bridge above the Laymyo river and fired missiles on May 7, 2020 |
Overview (Arakan News )
It is not in Afghanistan nor Syria; it is in Arakan in
western Myanmar where two Russia made supersonic jet fighters flew over just
above the heads of local fishermen and fired the missiles into the mountains
and near the highway. It was lucky the missiles did not hit the fishing
cannoe.
Military aggression has been easing in middle east and
Afghanistan after Covid-19 pandemic threating every region and every one. But
government and army spokespersons in Naypaytaw are very proud of briefing the
press and accusing Arakan Army was shooting WHO and WFP vehicles.
It is how it goes on to behavior warmongers and aggressive
people. Very unfortunate, Burma, now Myanmar, was not enforced to sign
armistice treaty with disarmament provision with American led alliance before
the independence. This nation should be considered the most aggressive as Asia
Axis after North Korea. In the future, civilized and peace loving nations
should keep in mind Myanmar needs to sign a disarmament treaty.
At the present time, a Sittway based military analyst who
remains confidential for his personal security, foresees Myanmar army’s dry
season offensive operation supported by airstrikes, navy, and artillery
firepower are gradually easing in Rakhine State. His own analysis is somehow
interesting.
Glancing on
Operation Theatre
According to the analyst, Tatmadaw is reducing its ground
troops from attacking on AA positions and bases in thick jungles and high
mountains in the eve of stormy monsoon weather but moving back the forces to
the bases while focusing in villages and towns to search, arrest, and
interrogate suspects of AA supporters.
“The army is prioritizing to reposition its troops of 15,000
to defense the bases and newly set up artillery bases in the frontlines in
northern Rakhine and southern Chin states,” He said.
Beginning of winter and through out the summer season from
November to April, Myanmar army has aggressively launching military operations
against AA, an attempt to defeat and contain AA fighters advancing to south,
penetrating in villages and towns, and cut off supply lines and connection with
rural populations.
“The war Myanmar army fighting in this summer is first to
defeating AA by air and navy supports in three months period, but it later
changes to secure logistic support as well as clearing military supply roads,
and defending hardware and artillery installations in new bases,” the analysist
said.
Why is that?
By looking back the heavy military presence and carrying out
aggressive operations by moving place to place and timelines in northern
theatre in Paletwa, Minbya, Kyauktaw, and Ponnaygun townships will be tangible
wider scenario and more understanding on Naypaytaw strategy.
Firstly, the army attacked AA bases in Paletwas township in
Chin State through December to May. Jet fighters and helicopters are
consistently bombing and firing missiles to the mountains and jungles--sometime
to the villages--where possible AA bases are located while ground forces
attacking.
Arakan Army cleverly repositioned and attacked the very
strategic location on water transportation gateway of Miwa military base for
over 45 days. Myanmar army paid heavy prices to defend the base. At one point,
entire battalion and its commander were killed and captured by the AA fighters
after parachuting.
Secondly, the army at the same time attacked AA bases and
positions in the deep and far north of Kaladan River in Kyauktaw township. The
army faced heavy causalities near Tin Ma, Mu Than Pyin, and Mar Lar villages.
Again, jet fighters and helicopters dropped bombs in the jungles and mountains.
Some bombs fall into Mu Than Pyin. Later on, the army set fire Tin Ma, Mar Lar,
Mu Than Pyin, and Saba Htar villages. Thousands of villagers had to take
shelters in Kyauktaw.
Thirdly, in the beginning of January while attacking in
Kyauktaw and Paletwa, the army sent 4,000 reinforcement troops to Minbya
township to secure Ramaung Bridge and to attack AA positions in wide range of
15 villages. Since then, the army has been consistently attacking AA positions.
Jet fighters, helicopters, and navy are backing up the ground forces.
While AA were busy defending its positions near Ramaung
bridge, it turned back and assaulted the military training school in Minbya
township in March. That shock up the military planer in Naypaytaw.
Ten of thousands of villagers had to run away from the
villages and set up temporary IDP camps.
The latest the army attack was on May 7, and two jet
fighters fired missiles to the mountain near Ngya Sa Yin village.
“The ground troops in Minbya are useless. The air strikes
are only deterring AA not to wipeout entire battalions. Most of the troops
bringing from the mainland are incapable and inexperience as well as lack of
skill commanders. Most skillful commanders are assigned in state and national
parliaments,” the analyst said.
The final push is Ponnaygun township. Three thousand
soldiers are mobilized in populated village tracks such as Nat Taung, Let Wea
Sar Taik, Kyauk Seik, Di Par Yon, and Ken U. These village tracks contain with
20 villages and reply on waterway transportation and some narrow roads.
Most of the reinforcement troops were landed by navy in
Kyauk Seik in first week of March. Then they were transported to Let Wea Sar
Taik by roads and small boats. Then AA cut the road and attacked by
landmines.
Most troops were encircled by AA fighters in the jungles and
hills near Khit Ka Toe village. Then jet fighters and helicopters bombed the
hills to clear the way out when artilleries were fined from Sittway and
Ponnaygun. The fight lasted 45 days.
In April second week and after the shells killed 8 civiliand
and wounded 14 villagers in Kyauk Seik, AA attacked the navy landing port near
the village and killed several soldiers.
“This is the end of full scale operation in Ponnaygun
township and attacking on AA bases, but the army is changing its operation to
arrest villagers from every village and interrogate. That is the way they army
thought they could find AA members and supporters in the village as intelligent
gathering operation,” the analyst said.
AA stronghold township like Rathedaung, Maybone, and
Buthedaung are left out of full scale military operations but sporadic fights
and jet fighters bombing sometimes.
The analysis said, “It shows the weakness of the army
leaderships and insufficient troops to assemble wide range of Arakan theatre.
If AA extends the fights in the south, Naypaytaw will be in big trouble.”
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| A villager watching the smoke of bombs |
Thousands of civilians have been killed, injured, arrested,
and disappeared since the military operation began for one and half years.
Nearly 200,000 people are displaced, 15 percent of the populations in the
second poorest state.
The people are suffered by the government security forces
that sparks the United Nations human rights expert calling for fresh war crimes
and crime against humanity investigation into the army.
Most villagers were killed and injured by gunshot,
airstrikes, bombs, shell, gunfire, and landmines. The graphic photos, videos,
testimonies of the victims, interaction among the affected communities turn the
people anger toward the government soldiers and military leaders.
“It is wrong policy and misconduct of the army that is
randomly searching and arresting the villagers. Some are disappeared; some are
tortured to death; and some are paralyzed permanently. All of these are crimes
the community cannot bear of and want to find justice. The justice they believe
can deliver is to joining AA and fight back the brutal army. Now almost all
young men and women join AA. That is what happening on the ground,” The analyst
said.
Indeed, the people hate the army that is the way they lose
intelligent and information gathering.
“It becomes like war in Vietnam. People don’t want to have
any eye contact with and speak to the soldiers. They see them like monsters and
disgraceful brutal creatures. That is how the people feel and all Rakhine now
firmly determine they don’t want to associate with the Burmese as ever before,”
He said.
Military strategists in Naypaytaw have imposed ‘4-cuts’
tactics on Rakhine people in order to weaken AA advance. The strategy is to kill
all, burn all, force out all, and starve all.
“That does not work either. It is not 1970s. This is digital
information age. The world is more connected. Myanmar government is defending
genocide law suit at the ICJ. They will face additional war crimes at ICC if
they keep doing and killing more civilians and destroy community,” the analyst
said.
The Strength
and Weakness of AA and Tatmadaw
“The grounds troops of AA are constituted with very brave
and active young men. They hold firm determination and willing to sacrifices.
They all are volunteers. They join AA by their own consent. They are mobile.
They can regroup quickly and separate suddenly. They have no permanent base.
They don’t need a lot of ration and equipment to carry. Only their guns and a pack
of dry rice they can fight anywhere,” He said.
He said, “From top to down, all soldiers are spoiled. They
get these high ranking positions by clearly their way by paying to their
highest bosses in mid 1995s when all battalions were ordered to invest at least
10,000 US dollars equivalence that was to counter US and EU economic sanctions.
Then these generals enjoy luxury life style and more like businessmen. They
don’t know how to fight guerrilla wars. The private soldiers are the worse.
They don’t have will to fight. Some are very aging. Some soldiers even bring
their wives to the temporary bases for cooking foods and guarding the bases.
Some military and police prisoners are taken out of the jails as well as
retirees and then brought to the frontlines in Rakhine. When they confront with
AA fighters, they loss 95 percent of times. Thus, they don’t look for AA to
fight as they did in 2018. They are staying at the villages most of the times
and only conduct quick petrol.”
But on some occasions, the battalions are called to attack
AA bases when airstrikes are carrying out in Paletwa, Minbya, and Buthedaung
townships.
AA has many weaknesses as well. And his own
observations are somehow considerable.
“AA does not have antiaircraft missiles, navy destroyers,
and heavy artilleries. They cannot seize military bases and towns. They cannot
occupy and control wider lands and townships. They are still in harassing
position against the Tatmadaw. But in the long run, the army will suffer the
most,” He said.
Condition of IDPs and Future Political Perspective
“Now, there are almost 200,000 IDPs, 25 percent of
populations in 1,200,000 in Rakhine state, and most are less productive. The
refugees will be increased to 500,000 or a half million. At least 3,000 civilians
will be killed in next a few more years of war. That will be the heaviest price
Araknese paid in modern world,” The analyst said.
“People will feed the IDPs by taking out some portions from
their meals. That is how Rakhine people generosity are, share and care each
other….strong attachment,” He said.
He said, “The army may not stop fighting in Rakhine because
of this is what the generals are defending for insinuating turn over to their
prestige and pride. But after election in 2020 and if new government pay more
attention on peace, it may be something hopeful. But most often times since U
Nu and Ne Win times as well as U Thein Sein, peace talks were something
seasonal or political trading events to maintain their status quo.”
He said, “Election is Rakhine State is important test for
democracy transition. If the government is unable to hold the election because
of rebellious, it is fatal failure. No doubt, Rakhine national parties will win
in election if there is one. NLD nor USDP will even loss the seats in their
stronghold townships such as Tungok, Thandwe, Gwa, and Ann. Thus, NLD leaders
may not want the election because they will not win. Of course, army may want
to make the state as militarized zone so that they can hold their last outpost
of military power.”
“Arakan National Party is key to have election. As AA said
one needs to talk to AA in order to hold the election. But the central
government or election commission has to talk to ANP and relax a bit from
designation of AA as terrorist organization that bars people to talk to AA. ANP
can talk to AA to hold temporary ceasefire in election days if army agrees to
halt the attacks,” He said.
Conclusion
Arakan Army and Tatmadaw will continue fighting in the
raining season, but airstrikes will be limited. Villagers will keep running out
of the villages and increasing IDPs due to the army searching and
arresting.
Farmer will meet with constant restrictions during the
seasonal paddy cropping. Village to village and township to township inter
trade will be block in northern Arakan. Some villager will face shortage of
foods and starvations.
The tension between the army and the people will remain high
while Tatmadaw is waiting for dry season to relaunch aggressive operations.
As Rakhine proverb says, ‘Rebels rise high with monsoon tidy
when royal soldier’ boot-shoes are stuck with the muddy water,’ AA will ambush
and attack the Tamadaw transportation, supply lines, and troops mobilizations.
In the end, all sides play cat and mouse war games in this
monsoon.
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| Passenger speedboat are crossing Lay Myo river when the jet fighters and firing missiles to the mountain in Mibya on May 7, 2020 |
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