The BCIM quandary

Subir Bhaumik,  bdnews24.com

Published: 2013-10-17 10:07:19.0 BdST Updated: 2013-10-17 14:44:45.0 BdST

During Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's visit to China next week, the Chinese will push for acceptance of modalities to take forward the BCIM economic corridor plan.

BCIM stands for Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar, a regional group now considered high priority by Beijing, which sees much future in a strong regional trading bloc boosted by all-round connectivity, physical and virtual.

China has already been in discussion with Myanmar and Bangladesh to take this plan forward.

During Premier Li Keqiang's Delhi visit in May this year, India and China agreed to 'explore' the possibility of a BCIM economic corridor.

During Singh's Beijing visit, China will also offer to declare Kunming and Kolkata as 'sister cities' to carry forward the K2K (Kunming to Kolkata) process that complements efforts to create a BCIM land corridor that can then be converted into an economic corridor.

Because Kunming and Kolkata are two defining end-points of the land corridor that would hold together the BCIM grouping.



India does not have much to show, beyond ‘initial exploration’ by way of checking with concerned state governments on how to take this forward.

Manmohan Singh may try to convince Li Keqiang that India’s federal structure and the reality of its coalition politics will necessitate a slow response, much slower than what the Chinese would expect.

Bangladesh, by now, is familiar with that kind of argument and is surely not amused.

But while there may be some truth in Indian coalition politics adversely impacting on Teesta water sharing or land boundary agreement, it holds no water when it comes to BCIM.

It is Delhi and not the states in east or northeast who fear Chinese trade and investments along the BCIM corridor because that can boost their uninspiring economy.

Especially when Indian private capital, as Manishankar Aiyar had once said, has been ‘criminal in its neglect’ of the Northeast and there is not much the region can expect from the West or even Japan .

Aiyar had strongly recommended allowing Bangladesh capital to invest in India's northeast -- something that the tiny state of Tripura seem to be keenly encouraging now.

So if Northeastern states shy away from pushing for Chinese trade and investment, it is because they anticipate a negative response from Delhi and not because they dont want it.

China, on its part, is moving fast. It wants the BCIM car rally route to be converted into the BCIM Friendship highway and turned into an economic corridor with industries, trading entrepots and tourism infrastructure developed all around it.

Obsessed with physical connectivity to secure land-to-sea connectivity so that it can bypass the Malacca straits ‘chokepoint’, China has pushed for transforming BCIM into a live regional grouping to integrate the two most populous nations of the world and then use the Bangladesh-Myanmar corridor to help ‘Chindia’ draw south-east Asia into what the Chinese economists see as the world’s strongest future economic bloc.

Sample this from Chinese commentator Gu Yihang in Yunnan-based ‘Link Times’ : “ China, Southeast Asia and South Asia are home to half of the world’s populations, resource rich reserves and broad trade space have made this region one of the world’s most appealing investment and commerce regions. In foreseeable future, the integration of the three markets will change the global economic outlook”.

Premier Li has said China’s bridgehead strategy out of the frontier province of Yunnan to connect to neighbouring countries of South and South-east Asia coincides with India’s Look-East policy which he seemed to welcome rather than oppose.

The Chinese say they don’t see a disconnect between the two and only wish India shed its fear of encirclement by China ( a ‘US-motivated ghost called string of pearls’ , as one Chinese analyst said recently) and create a win-win situation for both countries in Asia, from south-east to west. China feels India would stand to gain much more economically by higher trade and connectivity with China and the rest of Asia than by playing an ‘Asian pivot’ for Obama which only helps the US and western countries boost their sale of military hardware to India.

The Kunming-Kolkata or K2K summit, a track 2 effort, receives official backing from both China and India. Its next summit in Kolkata on 21-22 November will be attended by representatives of 30 to 40 top Chinese companies looking to invest in eastern and northeastern India. A formal push for the BCIM during Manmohan Singh’s October visit to China may boost the process and help chief ministers or industry ministers in the east and northeast to showcase their states to Chinese investors.

If the Indian Home Ministry can waive off its objections and agree to allow Chinese telecom majors like Huawei to invest big time in the Mumbai-Delhi industrial corridor or the Indian embassy in Beijing can rope in huge Chinese investments for Andhra Pradesh, the east and northeast should not be deprived just because the region has a long border with China.

After all, economic inter-dependence is one sure way of avoiding conflict and a China with much stake in the Indian economy and its market will be ever less inclined to push its Himalayan borders or flex its military muscles unless some hawk in Delhi comes up with a new ‘forward policy’ . It is more important for Delhi to push Beijing to change its structure of trade and bring down its import barriers to ensure a more favourable trade balance for India than raise strike corps to take Lhasa.